I spent most of Sunday evening watching the weather radar in vain hope that some of the ‘interesting’ weather Ginger has promised might arrive. Instead all I saw was that Springfield seems to be sandwiched in a nice forty mile wide precipitation free corridor bounded to the north and south by ice and snow.
Once tucked up warm in bed I briefly heard the rattle of ice pellets hitting the insect screens before drifting off to sleep.
I awoke Monday to discover that about an inch of ice had fallen over night, and that made driving the school run fun. Going down the hill on E. Battlefield towards the junction with Lone Pine we saw a mini van (people carrier) on its side on the verge of the opposite carriageway. I made a note to take a picture on the way back, but by the time I’d dropped Alek off, the police had closed the road, which wasn’t very helpful as another car had left the road on the diversionary route they set up. I managed to get back just in time to take Lanie to school, it had taken me over an hour to go about seven miles.
Mid morning I made coffee for Ginger and myself, and liking the light, decided to take pictures. All went well until I added whipped cream to my mocha. The container was nearly empty and decided to splutter all over the kitchen counter and my camera. Cleaning the camera took considerably longer than spraying it with cream.
Temperatures remained about -10C all day and I nearly slipped base over apex on the ice while collecting Lanie from School. Later I watched from the safety of a side road as one car balletically slid to a halt, catching the rear end of another in the process, the impact sliding the second car sideways. It was very graceful, and produced a satisfying ‘crump’ noise. I should add the impact was minor, and no one appeared to be hurt.
Monday evening once more promised interesting weather that failed to materialise. Yet again Springfield was the empty sandwich filling between snowy bread, though it looked like the weather to the north might come down to visit us. Ginger has introduced me to the National Weather Service web site, which not only gives radar images, but also lets you ‘listen in’ on the meteorologists expounding on how they arrive at their forecasts, and what margins for error there may be. Being a nerd in training I find this fascinating, and I’ve included a small bit of Monday night’s report below.
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO 524 PM CST MON DEC 15 2008 ...UPDATE TO AVIATION... .DISCUSSION... A VERY COMPLEX FORECAST FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS WITH LITTLE IN THE WAY OF MODEL CONTINUITY OR AGREEMENT. SEVERAL PERIODS OF PRECIPITATION ARE LIKELY WITH A MIX OF SEVERAL PRECIPITATION TYPES THROUGH THE PERIOD AS WELL. SHORT TERM (TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT)... MORNING MODEL RUNS CAME IN WITH ACCUMULATING PRECIPITATION ACROSS MUCH OF THE SPRINGFIELD CWA BEGINNING LATE THIS EVENING. THIS BEING A MAJOR CHANGE FROM PREVIOUS RUNS...IT NECESSITATED SCRUTINY...AND GOT PLENTY OF IT. HOWEVER...AFTER MUCH EXAMINATION...THE FORECAST SOLUTION IS QUITE REASONABLE. MID LEVEL FRONTOGENESIS HAS BEEN ONGOING THROUGHOUT THE DAY ACROSS A FAIRLY WIDE BAND RUNNING SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST ACROSS THE CWA AS EVIDENT BY MID LEVEL RADAR RETURNS AND SATELLITE IMAGES. PRECIPITATION HAS NOT BEEN FALLING UNDER THIS FEATURE...BUT CEILINGS HAVE COME DOWN A BIT AS SOME DOWNWARD SATURATION HAS BEGUN. THE FORECAST IS FOR ISENTROPIC UPGLIDE TO ENSUE THIS EVENING AND MOISTEN THE LOWER LEVELS. THIS WILL COUPLE WITH THE MID AND UPPER LEVEL LIFT TO PRODUCE A FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT FOR A BROAD AREA OF PRECIPITATION...WITH SOME BANDING TAKING PLACE...MOST LIKELY ALONG THE INTERSTATE 44 CORRIDOR. SOUNDINGS INDICATE SNOW AS THE PRIMARY PRECIPITATION TYPE WITH SOME SLEET POSSIBLE ALONG THE SOUTHERN BORDER OF THE CWA. AS THE SNOW TAPERS OFF ON TUESDAY...SOME FREEZING DRIZZLE AND PERHAPS LIGHT SLEET WILL BE POSSIBLE. IT CURRENTLY APPEARS THAT ANY ICE ACCUMULATIONS WILL BE LIGHT. IN TERMS OF SNOWFALL AMOUNTS...THE COBB METHOD AND ISENTROPIC UPGLIDE METHOD BOTH INDICATE 2 TO 4 INCHES ACROSS A BROAD AREA. THIS WOULD BE SUPPORTED BY SNOW TO WATER RATIOS OF AROUND 15:1 COUPLED WITH MODEL QPF. IT SHOULD BE NOTED THAT PERSISTENT BANDING OF SNOWFALL UNDER SOME OF THE STRONGER FRONTOGENESIS MAY PRODUCE SLIGHTLY HIGHER TOTALS IN A FEW AREAS.
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